The Texas races, by the polls worth reading
The race board
Every race on Texas ballots with at least one poll that meets our bar. A dot is the average of the latest poll from each pollster that meets the bar in the past 30 days; with fewer than 3 such pollsters, the polls show one by one. The shading shows how far Texas’s final polls have typically missed. Updated Oct. 23.
In the U.S. Senate race, 11 recent polls didn’t meet our bar. Switch to “Every poll” to see how much they would move the average.
This board shows every race on Texas ballots this fall with at least one poll that meets our bar, how each race leans in those polls, and how far to trust the lead. It doesn't predict a winner: a poll describes a race on the days it was taken, and final polls have missed before.
Race by race
Every poll since the nominees were set. Filled dots count toward the average lines; hollow dots were set aside. Hover or tap a poll for who ran it and why it counts.
Texas Public Opinion Research, May 28: Paxton 44%, Talarico 47%, Brown 1% (set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster). ReconMR, June 4: Paxton 46%, Talarico 46% (set aside: Pollster unrated). Quantus, June 4: Paxton 45%, Talarico 43% (set aside: Pollster rated B/C). UT/Texas Politics Project, June 12: Paxton 43%, Talarico 42%, Brown 3%. SoCal Strategies, June 21: Paxton 49%, Talarico 47% (set aside: Paid for by a Republican-leaning sponsor). NYT/Siena, June 27: Talarico 47%, Paxton 47%. A2 Insights, June 28: Paxton 46.1%, Talarico 48.4% (set aside: Pollster rated B/C). Texas Public Opinion Research, July 17: Talarico 45%, Paxton 40%, Brown 1% (set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster). Beacon/Shaw, July 27: Talarico 51%, Paxton 48%. Texas Southern University, July 30: Talarico 47%, Paxton 45%, Brown 2% (set aside: Pollster unrated). ReconMR, July 30: Talarico 47%, Paxton 43% (set aside: Pollster unrated). YouGov Blue, July 31: Talarico 48%, Paxton 45% (set aside: Paid for by a Democratic group). Emerson, Aug. 10: Paxton 47%, Talarico 46%. UT/Texas Politics Project, Aug. 13: Paxton 39%, Talarico 42%, Brown 3%. Texas Public Opinion Research, Aug. 24: Talarico 48%, Paxton 42%, Brown 1% (set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster). Overton Insights, Aug. 26: Talarico 44%, Paxton 43.4% (set aside: Paid for by a Republican group). Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research, Sept. 1: Talarico 48%, Paxton 44% (set aside: Pollster rated B/C). YouGov, Sept. 4: Talarico 48%, Paxton 43%. InsiderAdvantage, Sept. 9: Talarico 47.1%, Paxton 45.6%, Brown 2.2%. Mason-Dixon, Sept. 10: Talarico 46%, Paxton 43%, Brown 3%. ReconMR, Sept. 11: Talarico 49%, Paxton 43% (set aside: Pollster unrated). SoCal Strategies, Sept. 13: Talarico 50%, Paxton 45% (set aside: Pollster unrated). Emerson, Sept. 14: Talarico 47%, Paxton 46%, Brown 2%. Trafalgar, Sept. 17: Talarico 46.4%, Paxton 45.2%, Brown 2.5% (set aside: No published method). Texas Southern University, Sept. 19: Talarico 47%, Paxton 46%, Brown 3% (set aside: Pollster unrated). Marist, Sept. 20: Talarico 50%, Paxton 44%. Texas Public Opinion Research, Sept. 22: Talarico 49%, Paxton 44%, Brown 3% (set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster). Stratus Intelligence, Sept. 24: Paxton 48%, Talarico 48% (set aside: Paid for by a Republican group). Big Data Poll, Sept. 26: Talarico 44.6%, Paxton 41.6%, Brown 5% (set aside: Pollster rated F). UMass Lowell, Sept. 28: Talarico 45%, Paxton 45%, Brown 2%. Guidant, Sept. 28: Talarico 46.6%, Paxton 44.2%, Brown 4% (set aside: Pollster unrated). Beacon/Shaw, Sept. 28: Talarico 51%, Paxton 49%. NYT/Siena, Sept. 30: Talarico 51%, Paxton 45%. YouGov, Oct. 5: Talarico 50%, Paxton 44%. UT/Texas Politics Project, Oct. 5: Talarico 50%, Paxton 47%, Brown 1%. Trafalgar, Oct. 8: Talarico 47.1%, Paxton 43.6%, Brown 1.8% (set aside: No published method). ReconMR, Oct. 8: Talarico 48%, Paxton 44% (set aside: Pollster unrated). Quantus, Oct. 11: Paxton 47.2%, Talarico 46.7%, Brown 2.2% (set aside: Pollster rated B/C). Marist, Oct. 11: Talarico 47%, Paxton 45%. GS Strategy/New River, Oct. 13: Talarico 49%, Paxton 44%, Brown 3% (set aside: Pollster rated B/C). University of Houston, Oct. 14: Talarico 48%, Paxton 46%, Brown 3% (set aside: Pollster rated B/C). InsiderAdvantage, Oct. 14: Paxton 48.5%, Talarico 48.1%, Brown 2.4%. ActiVote, Oct. 14: Talarico 51.9%, Paxton 48.1%. YouGov, Oct. 16: Talarico 51%, Paxton 49%. Texas Public Opinion Research, Oct. 18: Talarico 51%, Paxton 47%, Brown 2% (set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster). On Point Polling, Oct. 18: Talarico 48.8%, Paxton 43%, Brown 2.8% (set aside: Pollster unrated). Beacon/Shaw, Oct. 19: Talarico 49%, Paxton 49%. Emerson, Oct. 19: Talarico 48%, Paxton 46%, Brown 1%. VoteHub/Verasight, Oct. 20: Talarico 47.6%, Paxton 45.2%, Brown 1.4% (set aside: Pollster unrated). ActiVote, Oct. 21: Talarico 51%, Paxton 49%
Is the lead bigger than the error?
A poll’s margin of error applies to each candidate’s share. The error on the gap between them is close to twice as large. Bars show each pollster’s latest lead; whiskers show the error on that lead.
Oct. 21 | 400 LV
Oct. 19 | 1,398 LV
Oct. 19 | 1,000 LV
Oct. 16 | 1,492 LV
Oct. 14 | 1,200 LV
Oct. 11 | 1,196 LV
Oct. 5 | 861 LV
Sept. 30 | 615 LV
Sept. 28 | 850 LV
What’s still up for grabs
The average as 100 voters.
4 in 100 voters haven’t picked either major candidate. That’s more than the 1.8-point gap.
How to read a lead
A poll's margin of error, usually 3 to 4 points, applies to each candidate's share. The error on the gap between two candidates is close to twice as large. So a 4-point lead in a poll with a 3.5-point margin of error is inside the error: the race could be tied.
Averages help. When several good pollsters agree, a lead is more believable than any single poll. But averages miss too, and the shading on the race board shows how far final polling averages here have missed in recent top races.
Who’s polling Texas
Every pollster in these races, its rating, and whether its numbers count. Ratings are Silver Bulletin’s (January 2026) or membership in AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative.
| Pollster | Rating | Method | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | AAPOR TI member | App-based opt-in (ActiVote app and web app users) | |
| Beacon/Shaw | A- | Live phone (landline and cell) plus text-to-web | |
| Emerson | A | AAPOR TI | Mixed (MMS text-to-web, landline IVR, online panel) | |
| InsiderAdvantage | B+ | Mixed (text + online panel) | |
| Marist | A- | AAPOR TI | Mixed (live phone, text-to-web, online panel) | |
| Mason-Dixon | A- | Live phone (landline + cell) | |
| NYT/Siena | A | AAPOR TI | Live phone (cell and landline), English and Spanish | |
| Texas Southern University (YouGov) | B | Online panel (YouGov) | |
| UMass Lowell | A- | AAPOR TI | Online panel (YouGov) | |
| UT/Texas Politics Project | B | Online panel (YouGov, matched opt-in) | |
| YouGov | B | Online panel | |
| A2 Insights | B/C | Online opt-in panel | |
| Big Data Poll | F | Mixed (live phone + P2P SMS/text-to-web ~60%; online panel ~40%) | |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | B/C | Live phone (cell + landline) + text-to-web | |
| GBAO | B/C | Live phone + text message | Governor, Oct. 8: Hinojosa 47, Abbott 45, Dixon 4 (800 LV) – Set aside: Paid for by the Democratic campaign |
| GS Strategy/New River | B/C | Text-to-web + online | |
| Guidant | Unrated | Mixed (phone, mostly cell + landline; text-to-web) | |
| Mayes Media/Upward | Unrated | Live phone | |
| On Point Polling | Unrated | Online panel (opt-in, with quotas) | Railroad commissioner, Oct. 18: French 45.1, Rosenthal 39.8, DiBianca 3.7 (661 LV) – Set aside: Pollster unrated |
| Overton Insights | AAPOR TI member | Text-to-web (MMS recruitment, online questionnaire) | U.S. Senate, Aug. 26: Talarico 44, Paxton 43.4 (1,167 LV) – Set aside: Paid for by a Republican group |
| PPP | B+ | Landline (automated) + text | |
| Quantus | B/C | Text (SMS to mobile, voter-file sample) | |
| ReconMR | Unrated | Live phone (landline + cell) + text-to-web | |
| SoCal Strategies | Unrated | Online panel (opt-in) | U.S. Senate, June 21: Paxton 49, Talarico 47 (800 LV) – Set aside: Paid for by a Republican-leaning sponsor Governor, June 21: Abbott 54, Hinojosa 42 (800 LV) – Set aside: Paid for by a Republican-leaning sponsor |
| Stratus Intelligence | Unrated | Mixed (SMS-to-web 81% + live phone 19%) | Lieutenant governor, Sept. 24: Patrick 49, Goodwin 44 (865 LV) – Set aside: Paid for by a Republican group Attorney general, Sept. 24: Middleton 47, Johnson 42 (865 LV) – Set aside: Paid for by a Republican group Agriculture commissioner, Sept. 24: Sheets 47, Tucker 41 (865 LV) – Set aside: Paid for by a Republican group Railroad commissioner, Sept. 24: French 46, Rosenthal 44 (865 LV) – Set aside: Paid for by a Republican group |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | B/C | Online panel | U.S. Senate, Oct. 18: Talarico 51, Paxton 47, Brown 2 (969 LV) – Set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster Governor, Oct. 18: Abbott 51, Hinojosa 48, Dixon 1 (969 LV) – Set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster Lieutenant governor, Oct. 18: Patrick 50, Goodwin 47, Cristo 2 (969 LV) – Set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster Attorney general, Oct. 18: Middleton 50, Johnson 48, Oxford 2 (969 LV) – Set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster Comptroller, Oct. 18: Huffines 50, Eckhardt 48, Echavarria-Garza 2 (969 LV) – Set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster Agriculture commissioner, Oct. 18: Sheets 50, Tucker 48, Kelly 3 (969 LV) – Set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster Land commissioner, Oct. 18: Buckingham 49, Flores 48, Snider 3 (969 LV) – Set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster Railroad commissioner, Oct. 18: French 50, Rosenthal 48, DiBianca 2 (969 LV) – Set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster U.S. Senate, Sept. 22: Talarico 49, Paxton 44, Brown 3 (1,007 LV) – Set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster Governor, Sept. 22: Abbott 50, Hinojosa 46, Dixon 2 (1,007 LV) – Set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster Lieutenant governor, Sept. 22: Patrick 47, Goodwin 44, Cristo 2, McCormick 1 (1,007 LV) – Set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster Attorney general, Sept. 22: Middleton 46, Johnson 43, Oxford 2 (1,007 LV) – Set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster Comptroller, Sept. 22: Huffines 46, Eckhardt 43, Echavarria-Garza 1, Faizi 1 (1,007 LV) – Set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster Agriculture commissioner, Sept. 22: Sheets 46, Tucker 44, Kelly 2 (1,007 LV) – Set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster Land commissioner, Sept. 22: Buckingham 46, Flores 43, Snider 1 (1,007 LV) – Set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster Railroad commissioner, Sept. 22: French 45, Rosenthal 44, DiBianca 2 (1,007 LV) – Set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster U.S. Senate, Aug. 24: Talarico 48, Paxton 42, Brown 1 (1,000 LV) – Set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster Governor, Aug. 24: Abbott 49, Hinojosa 42, Dixon 1 (1,000 LV) – Set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster Lieutenant governor, Aug. 24: Patrick 47, Goodwin 41, Cristo 1 (1,000 LV) – Set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster Attorney general, Aug. 24: Middleton 44, Johnson 41, Oxford 1 (1,000 LV) – Set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster Comptroller, Aug. 24: Huffines 43, Eckhardt 41, Echavarria-Garza 1 (1,000 LV) – Set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster Agriculture commissioner, Aug. 24: Sheets 44, Tucker 40, Kelly 1 (1,000 LV) – Set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster Land commissioner, Aug. 24: Buckingham 44, Flores 40, Snider 2 (1,000 LV) – Set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster Railroad commissioner, Aug. 24: French 45, Rosenthal 41, DiBianca 1 (1,000 LV) – Set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster U.S. Senate, July 17: Talarico 45, Paxton 40, Brown 1 (1,048 LV) – Set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster Governor, July 17: Abbott 45, Hinojosa 42, Dixon 1 (1,048 LV) – Set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster Attorney general, July 17: Middleton 39, Johnson 38, Oxford 3 (1,048 LV) – Set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster U.S. Senate, May 28: Paxton 44, Talarico 47, Brown 1 (1,670 LV) – Set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster Governor, May 28: Abbott 46, Hinojosa 41, Dixon 1 (1,670 LV) – Set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster Attorney general, May 28: Middleton 44, Johnson 39, Oxford 2 (1,670 LV) – Set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster Governor, April 20: Abbott 48, Hinojosa 43 (1,865 LV) – Set aside: From a Democratic campaign pollster |
| Texas Southern University | Unrated | Text-to-web (SMS to online survey; English and Spanish) | Lieutenant governor, Sept. 19: Patrick 47, Goodwin 41, Cristo 2, McCormick 1 (1,800 LV) – Set aside: Pollster unrated Attorney general, Sept. 19: Middleton 47, Johnson 42, Oxford 2 (1,800 LV) – Set aside: Pollster unrated Comptroller, Sept. 19: Huffines 47, Eckhardt 39, Echavarria-Garza 2, Faizi 1 (1,800 LV) – Set aside: Pollster unrated Agriculture commissioner, Sept. 19: Sheets 45, Tucker 39, Kelly 2 (1,800 LV) – Set aside: Pollster unrated Land commissioner, Sept. 19: Buckingham 47, Flores 39, Snider 2 (1,800 LV) – Set aside: Pollster unrated Railroad commissioner, Sept. 19: French 44, Rosenthal 42, DiBianca 3 (1,800 LV) – Set aside: Pollster unrated Lieutenant governor, July 30: Patrick 46, Goodwin 39, Cristo 3, McCormick 0 (1,200 LV) – Set aside: Pollster unrated Attorney general, July 30: Middleton 46, Johnson 41, Oxford 3 (1,200 LV) – Set aside: Pollster unrated Comptroller, July 30: Huffines 46, Eckhardt 39, Echavarria-Garza 2, Faizi 0 (1,200 LV) – Set aside: Pollster unrated Land commissioner, July 30: Buckingham 45, Flores 40, Snider 2 (1,200 LV) – Set aside: Pollster unrated Railroad commissioner, July 30: French 44, Rosenthal 41, DiBianca 2 (1,200 LV) – Set aside: Pollster unrated |
| Trafalgar | B | Mixed (Trafalgar's standard live-call/IVR/text/email/online mix; not specified for this poll) | U.S. Senate, Oct. 8: Talarico 47.1, Paxton 43.6, Brown 1.8 (1,086 LV) – Set aside: No published method U.S. Senate, Sept. 17: Talarico 46.4, Paxton 45.2, Brown 2.5 (1,079 LV) – Set aside: No published method |
| University of Houston | B/C | Text-to-web (SMS invitation to online survey, English/Spanish) | Lieutenant governor, Oct. 14: Patrick 47, Goodwin 42, Cristo 3, McCormick 1 (2,000 LV) – Set aside: Pollster rated B/C Attorney general, Oct. 14: Middleton 47, Johnson 42, Oxford 3 (2,000 LV) – Set aside: Pollster rated B/C Comptroller, Oct. 14: Huffines 47, Eckhardt 40, Echavarria-Garza 2, Faizi 0.4 (2,000 LV) – Set aside: Pollster rated B/C Agriculture commissioner, Oct. 14: Sheets 46, Tucker 40, Kelly 2 (2,000 LV) – Set aside: Pollster rated B/C Land commissioner, Oct. 14: Buckingham 47, Flores 40, Snider 2 (2,000 LV) – Set aside: Pollster rated B/C Railroad commissioner, Oct. 14: French 45, Rosenthal 43, DiBianca 2 (2,000 LV) – Set aside: Pollster rated B/C |
| VoteHub/Verasight | Unrated | Online panel (Verasight Community, recruited by address-based sampling, text and online targeting) | |
| YouGov Blue | Unrated | Online panel |
Photos: Josh Huskin / Texas Democratic Party; Office of the Lieutenant Governor of Texas; Office of the Texas Attorney General; Office of the Texas Governor; Photo: Bo French campaign (via Ballotpedia); Photo: Dawn Buckingham campaign; Photo: Don Huffines campaign; Photo: Mayes Middleton campaign; Photo: Nate Sheets campaign (via Ballotpedia); Photo: Nathan Johnson campaign; Texas Democratic Party.
How Texas’s final polls compared with the results
Final polling average (hollow) and the result (filled), in points. On average the polls missed by 3.5 points; that’s the shading on the race board.
How we pick polls
A poll counts toward the board when it clears every one of these:
- A rated pollster: a Silver Bulletin grade of B or better (its January 2026 ratings), or membership in the American Association for Public Opinion Research's Transparency Initiative.
- Voters, not all adults: likely or registered voters, or simply "voters" when that's all the pollster says.
- At least 400 interviews.
- The real matchup: finished after the nominees were set, asking about the candidates on the Nov. 3 ballot.
- No partisan sponsor: a poll paid for by a campaign, a party or a partisan group is set aside, whichever side it favors, and so is a poll that a firm working mainly for one party's campaigns releases on its own.
- A published method: field dates, sample size, who was surveyed and how.
- Confirmed numbers: we read every number from the pollster's own release. A poll we couldn't confirm doesn't count.
The average is the plain mean of the latest poll from each qualifying pollster in the past 30 days, shown once three pollsters qualify. There is no weighting and no adjustment. With one or two qualifying pollsters, the board shows their polls one by one.
A race with no poll that meets the bar isn't on the board; it joins when one is released. Races that elect more than one person aren't shown, since there's no single margin to show. Polls that don't meet the bar stay on the page, hollow, with the reason.
Candidate photos come from the campaigns or official portraits, shown in grayscale on each party's color, the same way for every candidate.
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