Small donors fuel Talarico's Texas Senate bid while outside groups back Paxton

On a campaign balance sheet, James Talarico is the money candidate in Texas' U.S. Senate race. Add in the super PACs, and the advantage flips hard the other way.

Talarico's campaign reported $60.2 million in receipts from July through September, according to the candidates' quarterly campaign finance reports. Ken Paxton's campaign reported $10.2 million.

Outside groups have erased that gap and then some. Since the primaries, through Oct. 20, super PACs and other outside groups have spent $229.7 million to help Paxton or hurt Talarico. Spending to help Talarico or hurt Paxton totals $55.7 million. Each dollar is counted once.

For voters from Dallas County to the Collin and Denton County suburbs, much of the money in this race is not flowing through either candidate's campaign. It is being spent by groups the candidates do not run.

More spent against than for

The largest pile of outside money in the general election is not promoting anyone. Groups have spent $147.2 million opposing Talarico, compared with $82.5 million supporting Paxton.

Talarico's allies tilt the same direction on a smaller scale. They have put $41.5 million into opposing Paxton and $14.3 million into supporting Talarico.

A few super PACs carry much of the load. Texas PAC accounts for most of the money spent supporting Paxton, with $69.3 million. On the other side, Lone Star Rising PAC has spent $19.5 million opposing Paxton.

Small checks, big checks

The campaigns' own money comes from different places, too. Talarico took in $29.2 million in unitemized small-donor gifts during the quarter, nearly half of his receipts. The other $30.9 million came from itemized gifts, PAC contributions and transfers from joint fundraising committees.

Paxton's campaign drew $3.5 million from small donors, or just over a third of what it raised. Itemized gifts, PACs and joint fundraising transfers supplied $6.7 million.

Talarico's small donors alone gave his campaign more than Paxton's campaign raised from every source combined.

Who is paying for the race

Set the outside money beside each campaign's summer haul and the candidates look nothing alike. Spending for Talarico or against Paxton came to 0.9 times the amount Talarico's campaign raised from July through September.

Spending for Paxton or against Talarico came to 22.4 times Paxton's third-quarter receipts. The periods don't line up exactly, since outside spending runs from the primaries through Oct. 20, but the scale is hard to miss.

For Talarico, the campaign that carries his name still brought in more than all the outside groups on his side have spent. For Paxton, his campaign is a small share of the money behind him, and most of what is being spent in his favor goes to attacking his opponent.

About the data

We totaled independent spending reported by super PACs and other outside groups in the Talarico-Paxton general election, from the end of the primaries through Oct. 20, 2026, counting each expenditure once and sorting it by whom it supported or opposed. We compared those totals with each campaign's receipts on its third-quarter report (July 1-Sept. 30, 2026), split into unitemized small-donor gifts and itemized gifts plus PAC contributions and joint-fundraising transfers.

• The outside-spending totals and the campaign receipts cover different periods, so the multiples comparing them are rough measures of scale, not exact ratios.
• Outside spending is current through Oct. 20, and groups can file new or amended reports that change the totals.
• The figures show where money came from and how it was spent, but not how many voters it reached or whether it changed any votes.

Unitemized gifts: small contributions that fall below the federal threshold for naming donors, which campaigns report as a lump sum. Outside spending: money spent by super PACs and other groups to support or oppose a candidate without coordinating with the candidate's campaign. Joint fundraising committee: a committee that raises money for several candidates or party groups at once and then transfers shares to each.

Sources

• Federal Election Commission, OpenFEC API: U.S. Senate, TX (2026): general-election outside spending (independent expenditures) by spender and candidate, 24- and 48-hour notices included (2026 general election), latest period 2026-10-20; retrieved Oct. 21, 2026. Data
• Federal Election Commission, OpenFEC API: U.S. Senate, TX (2026): campaign money by report period, top 2 fundraisers (2025–2026 cycle), latest period 2026-09-30; retrieved Oct. 21, 2026. Data